Special Weather Statement

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR PALAU AND YAP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, KNOWN AS JTWC'S INVEST 98W IS CENTERED NEAR 8N142E, JUST WEST OF SOROL IN CENTRAL YAP STATE. THIS DISTURBANCE AND IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AS IT MOVES TOWARD YAP PROPER AND PALAU OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SERIES OF SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUMMEL PALAU AND YAP. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT INVEST 98W WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE SLOWLY, WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT BEYOND 24 HOURS. EVEN SO, THE CENTER OF SAID DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO MOVE OVER NEAR YAP PROPER OR NGULU AS EARLY AS SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING INTENSE DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH STRONG TO NEAR-GALE GUSTS DURING PASSAGE. PULSES OF WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PALAU AS WELL. VARIABILITY IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LITTLE TO NO WEATHER FOLLOWED BY SPORADIC HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION, HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE 4 TO 6 INCHES AT PALAU, AND 5 TO 8 INCHES AT YAP OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, LANDSLIDES ARE UNLIKELY; HOWEVER, IF SOILS BECOME SATURATED, ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY QUICKLY BECOME RUNOFF AND INCREASE MUDSLIDE RISKS, ESPECIALLY AT PALAU. WHILE TRADE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY NEAR PALAU AND YAP OVER THE COMING DAYS, LOCALIZED WIND WAVES AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS IN PALAU AND YAP COASTAL WATERS OVER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SURF WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG SOUTH, WEST, AND NORTH FACING REEFS OF PALAU AND YAP, BUT ARE NOT LIKELY TO BECOME HAZARDOUS AT THIS TIME. RESIDENTS AND MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THE REGION AT WEATHER.GOV/GUM/PUBLICFORECASTS AND ANY INFORMATION SHARED BY WSO PALAU AND WSO YAP FOR THEIR LOCAL REGIONS.